12 millioner amerikanerer har forhåndsstemt. I Norge regner man etter alt å dømme med at flertallet av dem stemmer på Obama. Bill Clinton kaster seg inn. Alt annet enn demokratisk seier er utenkelig. Stemmer det? Ikke vær for sikker. En av de mest pålitelige meningsmålingsvurdererne viser at McCain har tatt inn ett prosentpoeng. Men:
What we can say, when we put all this information together, is that there are two things that John McCain is NOT doing. Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama’s margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama’s margin — but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.
Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania.